President Trump vs. The Haters

 

Raymond Chandler, my favorite writer, in Farewell, My Lovely describes something that really stood out as being "as inconspicuous as a tarantula on a slice of angel food." Chandler had a way with unforgettable imagery. President Trump may be a lot of things, but one thing he is not is subtle. But do you know who else is bereft of subtlety? That would be Trump's most vociferous detractors, people so vocal with their hatred of the man that they seem blind to anything else. There is now a name for this: TDS, or Trump Derangement Syndrome. I am convinced that if Trump found the cure for cancer, these folks would accuse him of engineering some sort of biohazard for his own personal profit.

I wish the Haters would focus more on critiquing Trump's policies and less on the emotion-fueled ad hominem attacks that seem to be the only arrows in their quivers.  Let's take a look at Trump's trade policies. He has this idea that revenue from tariffs could replace the income tax system. That seems like a fever dream to me. I have never favored tariffs as economic policy (I am very much a free market guy). But here Trump seems to be pursuing conflicting goals. He wants to address the affordability issue, but tariffs are likely to raise prices. The company that is importing the goods has to pay the tariff. That company, depending on the competitive landscape, can pass the cost onto consumers by raising prices. Or the company can absorb the cost, resulting in lower profit margins. No free lunch here.

Trump declared April 2nd, 2025, as "Liberatrion Day" in a speech where he announced sweeping new tariffs. The stock market sank faster than our fat Basset Hound going off the pool diving board. Why such a violent reaction? For one, concern over how various companies would be affected. Even though the Supreme Court has struck down many of the Trump tariffs, I imagine that Trump will continue to seek other ways to get what he wants. So, here it would be helpful to consider some stocks and sectors that could be somewhat "tariff-proof." That would lead us to areas where there are no physical imports, but where we could find high margins, recurring revenue, and pricing power. Examples in the software sector include Microsoft (MSFT, $400), Adobe (ADBE, $258), and Salesforce (CRM, $198). That brings us to another problem, because software companies are being hit by AI concerns--namely that AI could replace some of what is done by software. Everywhere where you go, you risk stepping in something else (like in our backyard, the gifts left by that fat Basset).

Another portfolio option here would be in asset-light financials: Visa (V, $316), where revenue is from transaction flow and not physical inventory. Keep in mind, though, that a slowdown in GDP would reduce transaction volume. Healthcare services (not medical devices) is an area of domestic and inelastic demand; UnitedHealth (UNH, $286) would be a fit here. In utilities, I favor NextEra Energy (NEE, $93), but there is interest rate sensitivity. Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT, $643) and RTX (RTX, $197) offer a haven from tariffs, as defense spending tends to be geopolitically driven and often rises during trade tensions. Finally, consumer staples companies like Procter and Gamble (PG, $164) and Costco (COST, $987), althought they do have some global supply chain exposure--but they also have strong pricing leverage. Now just be careful not to step in anything.

Don't hold your breath waiting for the Haters to offer up any thoughtful, reasoned arguments about why they disagee with Trump on anything. They'll instead just keep calling him a Nazi--and I personally find that offensive because my father fought the real Nazis in World War II. That's not a term that should be thrown at someone with such casual abandon.

But, the Haters are just going to keep on hating.

Life is short. Get Busy!

Jim

Disclosure/Disclaimer: My family members and/or I own shares of V, NEE, PG, and COST. Individual stocks are mentioned here for the sole purpose of illustrating investment concepts, and nothing stated here should be construed as the advice to buy or sell any security. ChatGPT was a source for some of the "tariff-proof" stock names.

Copyright 2026 James Brinkley Taylor, Jr.

Email me with any questions, comments, or feedback:

jbrinkleytaylor@gmail.com

So Close and Yet So Far: The Joys of Horseshoe Lake

 

Night view of Horseshoe Lake from our porch

I often tell people that one of the reasons I love Horseshoe Lake so much is because "all of the gunshot victims end up on the dinner plate." On one of our first mornings there, I was drinking my coffee on the porch and gazing at all of the birds making their way by on the water when I heard what sounded like gunshots. For a split second I thought I was back in Memphis, but quickly realized that those shots were coming from the private hunting club just across the water. No urban shootouts at Horseshoe.

My wife and I first got the itch for Horseshoe after spending some time there over the years at the lake house of some great friends who regularly invited us over for weekends. One reason we found it so attractive is that it is a 50-minute drive from our home in Memphis, yet it feels like a world away. I contacted a real estate agent there and met him so he could take me on a tour of homes around the lake. I quickly learned that there was very little for sale--at least nothing that would work for us.  Not long after that I was contacted by my friend, Walker Uhlhorn, who told me about a tract of lakefront land he had acquired, with plans to create 20+lots, each with 100 feet of lakefront. This land had never been developed for homes. We bought a lot and hired an architect. That was a smart move on Mr. Uhlhorn's part, because now all of those lots are gone--and most have houses on them.  

The economics of Horseshoe illustrate a classic case of supply and demand, I once heard a money manager say, when asked why he liked the stock of Vail Resorts (MTN, $137) so much: "Because God is not making any more mountains." Well, God is not making any more lakefront land at Horseshoe, either. The last lot I know of that sold went for 40% more than what we paid for ours four years earlier. 

As Scarlett O'Hara's father said in Gone with the Wind: "Land is the only thing in the world worth working for, worth fighting for, worth dying for. Because it's the only thing that lasts." And here we're not talking about just any land, but lake front land. Would you want to have a weekend house at Horseshoe that wasn't on the water? You could surely get it for a whole lot less.

I know of several lake houses that are the full-time homes of their owners, but the vast majority are second homes, or what I like to call "weekend homes." This helps explain why there are not more commercial establishments in the immediate area. It doesn't make sense to own a store when there are no customers around during most of the week. This has implications for what you'll need to take with you for the weekend and what you'll need to keep stocked at the house.

Buying or building the lake house itself is only the first of many demands on your wallet. Most houses have a dock, and if you're going to have a dock, you might as well have a boat. My friend Hart Robinson owns the Boat Center in Memphis, and that is where we bought our pontoon boat. Hart also has a company called "Piling Row" that builds docks. So, one-stop shopping for us. It is always a pleasure doing business with Hart.

I have written in this space before about home generators, and how I think they will become a standard feature in homes. They are truly a "must have" at the lake, where the power goes out with some frequency. It's nice to have an extra refrigerator and freezer for stock-piling beer and meats. I really couldn't buy a load of steaks without the peace of mind that comes with the generator.  Of the houses near us that have generators, most of those are Generac. Ours is hooked up to the natural gas line and comes on automatically when the power goes out (I refuse to deal with propane tanks--too many accidents waiting to happen).

I have never been much of an "outdoorsman," but lake living is turning this city boy into one. If your wallet has anything left in it, you will want to get some useful supplies. We love Yeti (YETI, $45) products and now have several Yeti coolers of various sizes and a multitude of drinking mugs. The coolers are engineered to perfection. The cooler walls are thick, so a Yeti is noticeably heavier than, say, a Playmate cooler, but a Yeti can keep drinks cold for days.

Another company I am just learning about is American Outdoor Brands (AOUT, $9), separated from Smith and Wesson in 2020. The market cap is quite small at about $113 million.  I recently bought a small position, following my rule of buying only small positions in tiny companies--and this one has so far today, as I write this, traded only about 22,000 shares. They sell just about anything the aspiring outdoorsman might need, except firearms--they left that with Smith and Wesson. But AOUT does offer lots of products for the care and maintenance of guns.

One feature about Horseshoe that we have come to love is that a number of our Memphis friends now have houses on the lake, on that big swath of land that Mr. Uhlhorn developed. This gives the place a "neighborhood feel." We will be sitting on our porch and see people we know walk by on the lake path. They will typically be carrying a cocktail (in a Yeti mug, of course). And, being good neighbors, I always offer to refresh that cocktail for them. My nextdoor Horseshoe neighbor (yet another Uhlhorn) even introduced me to a drink I had never heard of. It's called a "paper plane" (why I don't know), and it's in a category of drinks known as "equal parts cocktails." As the equal parts name suggests, the paper plane has four ingredients in perfectly equal parts. Here's how you make it:

Fill a cocktail shaker with ice (you'll need a cocktail shaker just for your lake house bar)

Pour in: 

one measure of good bourbon 

one measure of Amaro Nonino (an Italian liqueur)

one measure of Aperol

one measure of fresh lemon juice (that's right--the same amount of lemon juice as the other three ingredients)

Shake it up and strain into a glass

This is the best-tasting cocktail I've ever had. When I make one for a friend, he always wants a refill--which I am more than happy to oblige. Since everything in this drink, except for the lemon juice, is alcohol, you could get pretty wasted if you drank multiple cocktail shakers full. But you're at the lake and not driving anywhere.

When we first had our house, we liked to go out to eat at a place called "Kamp Karefree." It has closed and is now for sale. It can be yours for the small sum of $2.1 million. But it is 3.39 acres of waterfront property and turnkey ready as a restaurant and marina. We now dine out at Highwater Landing, which is behind Bond's Grocery and is usually open Thursday through Saturday. They have excellent fried catfish and cheeseburgers, among other tasty fare. Speaking of Bond's Grocery, it is a true Horseshoe landmark. They have a limited selection (this is not Kroger) but they are just a few minutes drive from anywhere on the lake.

By the way, my wife bought me a fishing pole, so this year I think I'll use it, maybe hook us some dinner. Now, which end goes in the water?

One final note. If you are interested in Horseshoe Lake history (and there is a lot of it), I recommend the book The History of Horseshoe Lake by Nikki Lentz Walker. It's a fascinating read and a most helpful resource. We actually met the author recently sitting at the bar at HighWater Landing.

Life is short. Get busy!

Jim

Disclosure/Disclaimer: My family members and/or I own shares of MTN and AOUT.  Individual stocks are mentioned here for the sole purpose of illustrating investment concepts, and nothing stated here should be construed as the advice to buy or sell any security.

Copyright 2026  James Brinkley Taylor, Jr.

Email me with any questions, comments, or feedback:

jbrinkleytaylor@gmail.com

It's a Mad, Mad World

 

Is it just me, or do there seem to be an awful lot of people out there who are mad at the world? I encounter such people, typically, where they work and I shop. I don't feel that they are mad at me, or at anyone or anything in particular. They just ooze a sense of, I'd rather be anywhere but here. And the places where they work, I have noticed, are not independent, small businesses, but stores that are part of a large corporation. They really don't care what you buy--or if you buy anything at all. They have no skin in the game. Maybe they are just biding their time until Prince Charming--or Elon Musk--comes along. I don't sense that profound dissatisfaction when I walk into a small business, where it is likely that I'll encounter the owner--the person who does have skin in the game. And it is that ownership that makes all the difference.

Economists describe the current American economy as being "K-shaped." The upward slope of the K represents those people who are doing well and thriving. The downward slope stands for those people whose economic lives are stagnating or falling behind. To invoke another bit of imagery, the rising tide is not lifting all the boats--in fact, it is lifting only a select few. What determines someone's place on the K? Ownership. And there are several forms of ownership--owning a business, having home equity or an investment portfolio. To put it another way, it's the difference between having a positive net worth or zero (or negative) net worth. That number does not have to be a million dollars--it just needs to be something. I have often said that the difference between having, say, a few thousand to $100,000 in net worth is actually greater than having millions in net worth. Of course, that distinction only goes so far. A lesser amount will not get you a vacation home or a yacht, but it does bestow finanical security and options for growing that net worth.

When I go to a fast food outlet, I understand that the people taking orders and flipping burgers are probably making minimum wage.  But there is a hopeful assumption that because this is likely a first job for many of them, they will, with age and experience, move up the ladder. This, of course, does not necessarily happen. My advice to any young person just starting out: Set your sights on becoming an owner, save money and invest something. I don't think this is taught in schools. Why? Because ownership is a decidedly capitalist philosophy, and that is not the mindset of many educators.

In a sea of unhappy people working at the bottom levels of large corporations, there is one company that stands out as an exception: Costco (COST, $982). Costco is known for treating its employees with respect and paying wages higher than what is the industry norm. The average hourly wage at Costco is about $26 to $30. The company also offers exceptional benefits and promotes mostly from within. This is all part of the company's long-term focus, while so many competitors are obsessed with the short term and the next quarterly earnings. Is Costco's corporate culture at odds with the interests of shareholders? I'll let the numbers speak for thermselves. Since January 2016, COST stock is up some 351%; $10,000 invested in the stock at that time would be worth about $45,000 today. That is more than double the market's (as measured by the S&P 500) return.

My wife and I pay the annual membership fee to shop at Costco, and that is the foundation of the company's business model. The nearest Costco is about a 20 minute drive from or house, so we go there maybe once or twice a month. But when  we do, our shopping cart rings up about an average of $500+ at checkout. People unfamiliar with Costco may not realize that they have excellent steaks and other meats. If you have good freezer space (and a home generator, which I strongly recommend), you can really stock up. Some years ago, my wife and I took our two-year old grandson to shop with us, and I took a picture and sent it to a friend of mine. He replied: "They sell toddlers at Costco now?" I replied: "Yes, but you have to buy two dozen of them."

Life is short. Get Busy!

Jim

Disclosure/Disclaimer: My family members and/or I own shares of COST. Individual stocks are mentioned here for the sole purpose of illustrating investment concepts, and nothing stated here should be construed as the advice to buy or sell any security.

Copyright 2026 James Brinkley Taylor, Jr.

Email me with any questions, comments, or feedback:

jbrinkleytaylor@gmail.com