Road Trip

What do you get when you mix lackluster economic growth, high unemployment, financial anxiety, and falling gas prices? Well, that combination of circumstances just might take you straight to the front porch of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL, $64). While the Internet, smart phones, and satellite navigation systems have made the concept of "the middle of nowhere" virtually obsolete, it's still nice to find a familiar and reliable way station when traveling in less-than-familiar territory, a function served in my youth by the once-ubiquitous Stuckey's. Cracker Barrel joined the pantheon of recognizable road signs years ago, and what they offer is not fast food. The menu for seated dining is also something of a cardiologist's nightmare (or secret dream): everything, from country ham and biscuits to chicken and dumplings and fried chicken livers, that qualifies as country cookin'. But you know what to expect, and that's the whole point. When I am on the road away from home, I'm not likely to choose food from someplace I've never heard of--no "Big Bob's Bad Barbecue" unless I've read about the place in Garden and Gun magazine, for instance. I don't want Hepatitis A to be the most memorable souvenir of my road trip.

My wife and I have just returned home from our annual pilgrimage to the North Florida Gulf Coast---Destin--and one of our hallowed traditions is a visit to the Factory Outlet Mall, just a short drive from our condominium. This mall is so ginormous that one might easily mistake it for the ultimate suburban mega-church complex (the home church of the Chick-Fil-A guy, perhaps?). But no, this complex offers a religious experience of a different sort, namely salvation by bargain--Jesus Saves, and so do you! I bought a wallet at Coach (COH, $56) and a shirt at Brooks Brothers, but our chief mission was to pick up some treats for our grandson. Plenty of such deals were on display at Osh Kosh and Carter's (CRI, $52), but what really impressed me was the crowd at Ralph Lauren (RL, $152). There were so many people standing in line to check out (I counted upwards of 25) that we almost put back our selections and left. However, they had about 10 check-out stations fully staffed (unlike the U.S. Post Office, where a long waiting line is the signal for employees to take a break), and our queue moved quickly. Our grandson will be all prepped-out and ready to wow the babes at Parents Day Out. 

Our other trip (by air, not road) this summer was to New York to visit our daughter who moved there a year ago after graduating from George Washington University, in D.C.  A particular highlight was seeing the play Harvey, featuring Jim Parsons from the television show Big Bang Theory. It was great, and I was able to fulfill my mission of seeing a play that was not a musical. My regular readers here will recognize that a trip to New York allows me the chance to apply my "Memphis Theory" test, which means that any trend that has not yet showed up in my hometown probably has more room to run. Every place we went or passed by in Brooklyn and Manhattan that had a "juice bar" also had a long waiting line, notable among them being Jamba Juice (JMBA, $2.50). I bought my JMBA shares a few months ago, and it was nice to see some confirmation of a robust business. Start spreading the news.......

 When it comes to dining recommendations and reservations in major cities, I stand by my long-held conviction that there is no substitute for a really good, flesh and blood hotel concierge. I have to think that a concierge's request for a reservation at a popular restaurant is less likely to be turned down than if I called directly, because no restaurant wants to disappointment such a lucrative source of referrals. What I like to do is first consult the Zagat service(Zagat.com, or the books, now part of Google) for ideas so that the concierge at least has some idea of the dining experience I'm seeking. I have recently started using tripadvisor.com (TRIP, $37), which adds a new twist to restaurant and hotel searches by tapping into your Facebook account. Unlike Zagat, where the reviews are quasi-anonymous, the comments on tripadvisor are from both friends and strangers. So, if I know that a certain friend of mine has impeccable taste in restaurants (meaning that he likes what I like, really), his opinion is going to carry more weight with me than will the comments from sources I do not know. TRIP stock took a hit recently when their quarterly revenue fell below expectations, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that a global economic slowdown is going to hurt the results of travel-related companies. I think TRIP is still a really compelling long-term growth story. By the way, if you are headed to New York, my wife and I loved our stay at the Gramercy Park Hotel, and the concierge there was extremely helpful.

I find air travel to be stressful enough as it is, so I am not likely to compound my stress by booking a flight on Spirit Airlines (SAVE, $20.50), where "no fills" apparently means no legroom, no free soft drinks, and no free carry-on. The concept here is about saving money, where the idea that "you get what you pay for" is transformed into "you don't get what you don't pay for." I also learned a long time ago that it is not a good idea to limit my investment choices to those products and services that fit my own personal tastes and preferences. SAVE may not be the type of travel experience you are seeking, but its "Dollar Tree with wings" discounting is bringing in plenty of business. Their routes are primarily in the Southeast, with many destinations in the Caribbean. 

No vacation would be complete without stocking up on some tasty adult beverages, perhaps some of the products made by Beam (BEAM, $61). That's Jim Beam, of course, as in the bourbon. The company that is now Beam was once part of Fortune Brands, a collection of brands that also included Titleist golf balls and home security systems. The company didn't see much in the way of synergies from its brand portfolio, so they split up the enterprise, leaving BEAM focused on the spirits business. Brands include Courvoisier, Maker's Mark, Canadian Club, Knob Creek, Skinny Girl margarita and sangria, Gilbey's Gin, and Laphroaig single malt scotch. Alcoholic beverage companies tend to hold up better than many stocks in an uncertain economic environment, so BEAM is worth keeping on our Radar Screen. And the distinction between personal tastes and investment choices applies here as well: the Grey Goose goes down the hatch, but the Jim Beam goes in the portfolio.

Our final vacation stop this summer was New Orleans, where you don't need to pack any alcohol because the stuff is everywhere. And we are home just in time for Elvis Week in Memphis, so next time here we'll be paying tribute to The King with a little bit of Elvis-themed investment analysis. Stay tuned.

Life is short. Get busy.

Jim

Disclosure/Disclaimer: My family members and/or I own shares of CBRL, COH, RL, JMBA, TRIP, SAVE, and BEAM. Individual stocks are mentioned here for the sole purpose of illustrating investment concepts, and nothing stated here should be construed as the advice to buy or sell any security.